Final
Final
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
10 – 34
JAX -30.5 —Total 37.5 —
Biggest swing↓ 23.0(Pregame → Q3 12:30)
Spread
Current: -30.5Open: -8.5Final Result: -24.0
CLE10—JAX34
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars · Sep 13, 2026
What happened relative to the locked Pregame baseline (bucket −1 CLOSE)?
| Market | Pregame | In-game Hi | In-game Lo | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Spread JAX perspective (home / pregame favorite) | JAX -8.5 | JAX -8.5 | JAX -32.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars covered |
| Total | 40.5 | 49.5 | 37.5 | Over |
How the spread, total, and moneyline markets behaved.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, Jacksonville Jaguars covered. Jacksonville Jaguars entered as a 8.5-point favorite but won by only 24. The JAX live spread ranged from -32.5 to -8.5. Across tracked live market time, CLE was on the eventual covering side for 67%, while JAX was on the covering side for 33%.
The game played to the Over. The pregame total was 40.5 and the teams combined for 44. The live total ranged from 37.5 to 49.5. The prevailing live number ultimately produced an Over result for 42% of tracked time.
Moneyline implied probabilities moved during the game. JAX entered at 81.8% implied probability, reached a low of 99.0%, and a high of 99.9%. CLE entered at 22.2%, reached a high of 5.6%, and a low of 1.0%. Jacksonville Jaguars ultimately won.
Percentage of tracked in-game time where an entry at the prevailing spread would ultimately have resulted in a Jacksonville cover, Cleveland cover, or push against the final scoring margin.
Percentage of tracked in-game time where an entry at the prevailing total would ultimately have resulted in an Over, Under, or Push against the final combined score.
Current NFL Beta strategies — qualification, trigger, and stored result.
0 strategies qualified · 0 triggered
| Strategy | Qualified | Triggered | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| spread_big_favorite_inflation_fade | No | — | — | — |
| spread_low_total_favorite_buyback | No | — | — | — |
| total_low_total_scoring_spike_under | No | — | — | — |
| total_strong_favorite_compression_over | No | — | — | — |
Where the live market may have moved farther than the available game evidence justified.
No high-confidence market overreaction identified from the currently available game evidence.
Frozen Live-style market view. Interactive replay lives on Live.
Open Live for scrubbing, strategy overlays, and Writer Notes.
Completed possessions with drive grades and market during drive.
Drive data unavailable.
Detailed play-by-play was unavailable. Turnover, red-zone and drive-quality conclusions were not generated.
Scrub the full Spread, Total, and Moneyline charts with game events and strategy markers.
Open Live Replay