Final
Final
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
36 – 31
HOU +4.5 —Total 67.5 —
Biggest swing↑ 9.0(Q1 5:00 → Q3 7:30)
Spread
Current: 4.5Open: 1.5Final Result: 5.0
BUF36—HOU31
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans · Sep 13, 2026
What happened relative to the locked Pregame baseline (bucket −1 CLOSE)?
| Market | Pregame | In-game Hi | In-game Lo | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Spread BUF perspective (away / pregame favorite) | BUF -1.5 | BUF +2.5 | BUF -6.5 | Buffalo Bills covered |
| Total | 44.5 | 68.5 | 43.5 | Over |
How the spread, total, and moneyline markets behaved.
Buffalo Bills won, Buffalo Bills covered. Buffalo Bills entered as a 1.5-point favorite but won by only 5. The HOU live spread ranged from -6.5 to +2.5. Across tracked live market time, BUF was on the eventual covering side for 92%, while HOU was on the covering side for 8%.
The game played to the Over. The pregame total was 44.5 and the teams combined for 67. The live total ranged from 43.5 to 68.5. The prevailing live number ultimately produced an Over result for 88% of tracked time.
The game became competitive in implied win probability. HOU entered at 50.0% implied probability, reached a low of 24.4%, and a high of 61.2%. BUF entered at 54.1%, reached a high of 81.5%, and a low of 44.6%. Buffalo Bills ultimately won.
Percentage of tracked in-game time where an entry at the prevailing spread would ultimately have resulted in a Houston cover, Buffalo cover, or push against the final scoring margin.
Percentage of tracked in-game time where an entry at the prevailing total would ultimately have resulted in an Over, Under, or Push against the final combined score.
Current NFL Beta strategies — qualification, trigger, and stored result.
0 strategies qualified · 0 triggered
| Strategy | Qualified | Triggered | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| spread_big_favorite_inflation_fade | No | — | — | — |
| spread_low_total_favorite_buyback | No | — | — | — |
| total_low_total_scoring_spike_under | No | — | — | — |
| total_strong_favorite_compression_over | No | — | — | — |
Where the live market may have moved farther than the available game evidence justified.
No high-confidence market overreaction identified from the currently available game evidence.
Frozen Live-style market view. Interactive replay lives on Live.
Open Live for scrubbing, strategy overlays, and Writer Notes.
Completed possessions with drive grades and market during drive.
Drive data unavailable.
Detailed play-by-play was unavailable. Turnover, red-zone and drive-quality conclusions were not generated.
Scrub the full Spread, Total, and Moneyline charts with game events and strategy markers.
Open Live Replay