Final
Final
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
10 – 31
KC -23.5 —Total 43.5 —
Biggest swing↓ 22.0(Q1 5:00 → Q4 2:30)
Spread
Current: -23.5Open: -2.5Final Result: -21.0
DEN10—KC31
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs · Sep 14, 2026
What happened relative to the locked Pregame baseline (bucket −1 CLOSE)?
| Market | Pregame | In-game Hi | In-game Lo | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Spread KC perspective (home / pregame favorite) | KC -2.5 | KC -1.5 | KC -23.5 | Kansas City Chiefs covered |
| Total | 42.5 | 50.5 | 38.5 | Under |
How the spread, total, and moneyline markets behaved.
Kansas City Chiefs won, Kansas City Chiefs covered. Kansas City Chiefs entered as a 2.5-point favorite but won by only 21. The KC live spread ranged from -23.5 to -1.5. Across tracked live market time, DEN was on the eventual covering side for 12%, while KC was on the covering side for 88%.
The game played to the Under. The pregame total was 42.5 and the teams combined for 41. The live total ranged from 38.5 to 50.5. The prevailing live number ultimately produced an Under result for 87% of tracked time.
The game became competitive in implied win probability. KC entered at 56.9% implied probability, reached a low of 58.7%, and a high of 99.9%. DEN entered at 47.2%, reached a high of 47.2%, and a low of 1.0%. Kansas City Chiefs ultimately won.
Percentage of tracked in-game time where an entry at the prevailing spread would ultimately have resulted in a Kansas City cover, Denver cover, or push against the final scoring margin.
Percentage of tracked in-game time where an entry at the prevailing total would ultimately have resulted in an Over, Under, or Push against the final combined score.
Current NFL Beta strategies — qualification, trigger, and stored result.
0 strategies qualified · 0 triggered
| Strategy | Qualified | Triggered | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| spread_big_favorite_inflation_fade | No | — | — | — |
| spread_low_total_favorite_buyback | No | — | — | — |
| total_low_total_scoring_spike_under | No | — | — | — |
| total_strong_favorite_compression_over | No | — | — | — |
Where the live market may have moved farther than the available game evidence justified.
No high-confidence market overreaction identified from the currently available game evidence.
Frozen Live-style market view. Interactive replay lives on Live.
Open Live for scrubbing, strategy overlays, and Writer Notes.
Completed possessions with drive grades and market during drive.
Drive data unavailable.
Detailed play-by-play was unavailable. Turnover, red-zone and drive-quality conclusions were not generated.
Scrub the full Spread, Total, and Moneyline charts with game events and strategy markers.
Open Live Replay